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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Can’t crack the code

Hello to whoever sees this I would like some advice. I am a 19 year old that started trading forex about a year and a half ago and I’ve learned a lot in that period of time. Ive took some extensive breaks in between this time period as well. I’ve tried trading pure price action, mechanical systems, zone to zone, different indicators and I just can’t seem to figure out what is the best style of trading for me. I feel like I’ve mastered risk management but I just can’t find a strategy that I can be consistent with. I need to get over the hump of becoming a consistently profitable trader. Could anyone provide some advice to help me get to that point? Any help is greatly appreciated.
submitted by ItachiUchihaJr to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

Day #2 of my Forex Journey

Real quick before I get into my next steps of my FX Journey, id like to say thank you to all the people who commented on my last post! All of the tips I got were really eye-opening and introduced me to different parts of FX trading that I didn't even know existed. So thank you so much, and I hope to get more interesting feedback from you guys in the future! Also Im going to probably change my writing frequency from daily to biweekly. I think writing about every little trade is not going to be as beneficial to me as writing about my overall progress at certain points throughout the week.
I started this trading day out by learning up on order flow. A whole bunch of you guys suggested really interesting youtubers to watch, and I started with Mr. pip's series on order flow. After I finished up watching a few of his videos, I started to tweak my trading plan so that I could get in some chart time. I changed currency pair from EUUSD to the AUD/USD, the time frame from the 4 hour to the 1 hour, and my indicators from RSI, Stochastic, 2 SMAs and ADX to ATR, RSI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I also added a little fundamental analysis in my trading plan because I think that I am being far too reliant on my indicators. I planned to check the economic calendar and determine the general trend of the currency pairs that are strongly correlated to the AUD/USD before I began my chart analysis. In addition to all of my analysis, I tried to practice using the techniques I learned in Mr. Pip's videos and analyze the order flow of the chart. Even if my analysis of order flow is wrong, as long as I am getting practice I am learning.
Eventhough I planned to use today to back-test indicators and find a solid new plan, I did not have enough time. I ended up getting on my demo account really late in the day, and started to force myself to enter a trade. Destructive habits like this could lead into some massive issues when I eventually get into live trading. To combat this harmful attitude specifically, I will restrict myself to trading on certain parts of the day (for example session overlaps, news releases, and earlier in the day). Despite this mistake I still continued with my trading strategy. I calculated all the currency correlations for AUS/USD using the past weeks economic data, and set my indicators in place. After checking the overall trend of the most strongly correlated pairs (Positive: EUUSD, GPB/USD, Negative: USD/CAD, USD/JPY) I started to analyze the order flow. All the correlated currencies, except for EUUSD, indicated that the AUD/USD would fall, while my order flow analysis indicated the opposite. Seeing as though I am extremely new to order flow, I dismissed this analysis, and ended up forcing a trade on the AUD/USD going short when my indicators seemed to line up correctly. I learned from last time that I should not alter or close my trade purely based on emotion, and to just wait till the market hits my stop loss or take profit. I included a trailing stop loss of 60 pips this time, but I have no evidence to base that number range on. The trade is currently open and I am down about 30 pips.
Although I am not labeling this trade as a loser yet, I can definitely see a lot of holes in my trading strategy. The most obvious mistake in my eyes right now is my use of indicators. Currently all my trades are purely based on what my indicators say, and since I do not have any back-tested data to support the credibility of my indicators, it feels a lot like strategic gambling. Another issue is that I feel far too reliant on indicators alone. I think that if I can find ways to include various types of analysis efficiently and evenly in my trading plan I will become a much more skillful and well-rounded trader. In order to combat these two issues I will begin forming various types of trading strategies this weekend and back-test them all extensively. I also plan on researching more on price action, order flow, and Naked Forex.
Once again any and all feedback is welcome. I am just beginning Forex, but it had been a huge passion of mine and I don't plan on stopping anytime soon.
submitted by Aman-1127 to Forex [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

my dilemma on what to do with my trading

I just started forex last june and I'm currently down 50% of my capital. should I read books about technical analysis like the book of al brooks about price action trend, ranging, and breakout. should I understand the Japanese Candle Stick? I'm currently in dilemma what on what to do. If I'll go to youtube some says it's best to use pure indicator and some youtuber will say price action is enough. I also think I lack patience when the trade is ongoing. I kept on watching the chart and my account if its positive or negative. As I reflect during this month, I don't have a strategy and i just decide base on my feeling about the market. Do you guys have a recommendation what to read? I plan to stick with price action with less than 5 indicators
submitted by PusangKuryos to Forex [link] [comments]

What's everyones opinion of writing price action strategies into a bot

I've been forex trading for a bit and increasingly moving towards purely trading on proce action and indicators.
My question is this: if I'm trading purely based on a price action then are there any cases where manually trading is better than writing a bot to do it? Seems like me sitting there and doing the trades only increases room for error. What's everyones thoughts in this? Are there cases where a human ca n follow strategies better? Thinking more in terms of scalping/day trading
submitted by legalrock to Forex [link] [comments]

So you wanna trade Forex? - tips and tricks inside

Let me just sum some stuff up for you newbies out there. Ive been trading for years, last couple of years more seriously and i turned my strategies into algorithms and i am currently up to 18 algorithms thats trading for me 24/7. Ive learned alot, listened to hundreds of podcasts and read tons of books + research papers and heres some tips and tricks for any newbie out there.

  1. Strategy - How to... When people say "you need a trading strategy!!" Its because trading is very hard and emotional. You need to stick to your rules at all times. Dont panic and move your stop loss or target unless your rules tell you to. Now how do you make these rules? Well this is the part that takes alot of time. If your rules are very simple (for example: "Buy if Last candles low was the lowest low of the past 10 candles." Lets make this a rule. You can backtest it manually by looking at a chart and going back in time and check every candle. or you can code it using super simple software like prorealtime, MT4 ++ Alot of software is basicly "click and drag" and press a button and it gives you backtest from 10-20-30 years ago in 5 seconds. This is the absolute easiest way to backtest rules and systems. If your trading "pure price action" with your drawn lines and shit, the only way to truly backtest that kind of trading is going in a random forex pair to a random point in time, could be 1 year ago, 1 month ago, 5 years ago.. and then you just trade! Move chart 1 candle at a time, draw your lines and do some "actual trading" and look at your results after moving forward in the chart. If you do not test your strategy your just going in blind, which could be disaster.. Maybe someone told u "this is the correct way to trade" or "this strategy is 90% sure to win every trade!!!" If you think you can do trading without a strategy, then your most likely going to look back at an empty account and wonder why you moved that stop loss or why you didnt take profit etc.. and then your gonna give up. People on youtube, forums, interwebz are not going to give you/sell you a working strategy thats gonna make you rich. If they had a working strategy, they would not give it away/sell it to you.
  2. Money management - How to.... Gonna keep this one short. Risk a small % of your capital on each trade. Dont risk 10%, dont risk 20%. You are going to see loosing trades, your probably gonna see 5-10 loss in a row!! If your trading a 1000$ account and your risking 100$ on each trade (10%) and you loose 5 in a row, your down -50% and probably you cant even trade cus of margin req. Game over.. Now how does one get super rich, super fast, from risking 1-3% of your account on each trade?? Well heres the shocking message: YOU CANT GET RICH FAST FROM TRADING UNLESS YOUR WILLING TO GO ALL IN! You can of course go all in on each trade and if you get em all right, you might get 1000%, then you go all in 1 more time and loose it all... The whole point of trading is NOT going bust. Not loosing everything, cus if you loose it all its game over and no more trading for you.
  3. Find your own trading style.... Everyone is different. You can have an average holding period of 1 month or you could be looking at a 1 min chart and average holding time = 10 minutes. For some, less volatility helps them sleep at night. For others, more volatility gives them a rush and some people crave this. There is no "correct" timeframes, or holding periods, or how much to profit or how much to loose. We are all individuals with different taste in risk. Some dont like risk, others wanna go all in to get rich over night. The smart approach is somewhere in the middle. If you dont risk anything, your not gonna get anything. If you risk everything, your most likely going to loose everything. When people are talking about trading style, this is kinda what that means.
  4. There are mainly 2 ways to trade: Divergence and Convergence. Or in other words: Mean reversion or trend following. Lets talk about them both: Trend following is trying to find a trend and stay with the trend until its over. Mean reversion is the belief that price is too far away from the average XX of price, and sooner or later, price will have to return to its average/mean (hence the name: MEAN reversion). Trend following systems usually see a lower winrate (30-40% winrate with no money management is not uncommon to see when backtesting trend following systems.. You can add good money management to get the winrate % higher. Why is the % winrate so low? Well a market, whatever that market is, tend to get real choppy and nasty right after a huge trend. So your gonna see alot of choppy fake signals that might kill 5-6 trades in a row, until the next huge trend starts which is going to cover all the losses from the small losses before the trend took off. Then you gotta hold that trade until trade is done. How do you define "when trend starts and stops"? Well thats back to point 1, find a strategy. Try defining rules for an entry and exit and see how it goes when you backtest it. For mean reversion the win % is usually high, like 70-90% winrate, but the average winning trade is alot smaller than the average loosing trade. this happens because you are basicly trying to catch a falling knife, or catch a booming rocket. Usually when trading mean reversion, waiting for price to actually reverse can very often leave you with being "too late", so you kinda have to find "the bottom" or "the top" before it actually has bottomed/ topped out and reversed. How can you do this you ask? Well your never going to hit every top or every bottom, but you can find ways to find "the bottom-ish" or "the top-ish", thens ell as soon as price reverts back to the mean. Sometimes your gonna wish you held on to the trade for longer, but again, back to point 1: Backtest your rules and figure that shit out.

Read these 4 points and try to follow them and you are at least 4 steps closer to being a profitable trader. Some might disagree with me on some points but i think for the majority, people are going to agree that these 4 points are pretty much universal. Most traders have done or are doing these things every day, in every trade.
Here is some GREAT material to read: Kevin Davey has won trading championship multiple times and he has written multiple great books, from beginner to advanced level. Recommend these books 100%, for example: Building winning algorithmic trading systems" will give you alot to work with when it comes to all 4 of the above points. Market wizards, Reminiscences of a stock operator are 2 books that are a great read but wont give you much "trading knowledge" that you can directly use for your trading. Books on "The turtles" are great reading. Then you have podcasts and youtube. I would stay away from youtube as much as possible when it comes to "Heres how to use the rsi!!!" or "this strategy will make you rich!!". Most youtube videoes are made by people who wanna sell you a course or a book. Most of this is just pure bullshit. Youtube can very harmfull and i would honestly advice about going there for "strategy adivce" and such. Podcasts tho are amazing, i highly recommend: Better systems trader, Chat with traders, Top traders unplugged, We study billionairs, to name a few :)
Also, on a less funny note.. Please realize that you are, and i am, real fucking stupid and lazy compared to the actual pro's out there. This is why you should not go "all in" on some blind stupid strategy youve heard about. This is why this is indeed VERY FUCKING HARD and most, if not everyone has busted an account or two before realizing just this. Your dumb.. your not going to be super rich within 1 year.. You can not start with 500$ account and make millions! (some might have been able to do this, but know that for every winner, theres 999 loosers behind him that failed... Might work fine first 5 trades, then 1 fuckup tho and ur gone..
And lastly: Try using a backtesting software. Its often FREE!!! (on a demo account) and often so simple a baby could use it. If your trading lines and such there exists web broweser "games" and softwares that lets you go "1 and 1 candle ahead" in random forex pairs and that lets you trade as if its "real" as it goes.
A big backtesting trap however is backtesting "losely" by just drawing lines and looking at chart going "oh i would have taken this trade FOR SURE!! I would have made so much money!!" however this is not actually backtesting, its cherry picking and its biased beyond the grave, and its going to hurt you. Try going 1 candle at a time doing "real and live" trades and see how it goes.

Bonus point!!
many people misunderstands what indicators like the RSI is telling you. Indeed something is "overbought" or "oversold" but only compared to the last average of xx amounts of bars/candles.
It doesn't tell you that RIGHT NOW is a great time to sell or buy. It only tells you that the math formula that is RSI, gives you a number between 1-100, and when its above 70 its telling you that momentum is up compared to the last average 14 candles. This is not a complete buy/sell signal. Its more like a filter if anything. This is true for MOST indicators. They INDICATE stuff. Dont use them as pure buy/sell signals.. At least backtest that shit first! Your probably gonna be shocked at the shitty results if you "buy wehn rsi is undeer 30 and sell when RSI is above 70".

Editedit: Huge post already, why not copy paste my comment with an example showing the difference in trend following vs mean reversion:
The thing about trend following is that we never know when a trade starts and when it ends. So what often happens is that you have to buy every breakout going up, but not every breakout is a new trend. Lets do an example. Check out the photo i included here: https://imageshost.eu/image/image.RcC

THE PHOTO IS JUST AN EXAMPLE THAT SHOWS WHY A TYPICAL TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY HAVE A "LOW" WINRATE.
THE PHOTO IS NOT SHOWING AN EXAMPLE OF MY STRATEGIES OR TRADING.

  1. We identify the big orange trend up.
  2. We see the big break down (marked with the vertical red line) this is telling us we are not going higher just yet. Our upwards trend is broken. However we might continue going up in a new trend, but when will that trend come?
  3. We can draw the blue trend very earyly using highs and lows, lines up and down. Then we begin to look for breakouts of the upper blue line. So every time price breaks upper blue line we have to buy (cus how else are we going to "catch the next trend going up?)
As you can see we get 5 false breakouts before the real breakout happens!
Now if you could tell fake breakouts from real breakouts, your gonna be rich hehe. For everyone else: Take every signal you can get, put a "tight" stop loss so in case its a fake signal you only loose a little bit. Then when breakout happens as you can clearly see in chart, your going to make back all the small losses.
So in this example we fail 5 times, but get 1 HUGE new trend going further up. This 1 huge trade, unless we fuck it up and take profits too early or shit like that, is going to win back all those small losses + more.
This is why trend following has a low winrate. You get 5 small loss and 1 big win.

Now lets flip this! Imagine if your trading Mean reversion on all the same red arrows! So every time price hits the blue line, we go short back to the bottom (or middle) again! You would have won 5 trades with small profits, but on that last one you would get stopped out so hard. Meaning 5 small wins, 1 big loss (as some have pointed out in comments, if you where trading mean reverting you would wanna buy the lows as well as short the tops - photo was suppose to show why trend following strategies have a lower % winrate.)

Final edit: sorry this looks like a wall of text on ur phones.
submitted by RipRepRop to Forex [link] [comments]

List of Resources for New/Aspiring Traders

This is a post I made about 5 years ago and I'm reuploading it for visibility. Check back often as this will be getting reformatted and edited over the coming days to make sure it's upto date.
Price Action Attack Map N/A ------------------------------
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=520423 FXLester's guide to price action
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331 James16's guide to price action
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/58037-price-action-matters.html "Price Action That Matters by Aaron Kruger
https://www.forex4noobs.com/ Forex 4 noobs price action battle plan!
GAMES N/A ------------------------------------------------------
http://chartgame.com/ Personally, i think this is pure genius! I love it, it's an amazing way to brush up on your chart skills and it's actually pretty cool to see how things went. It throws a random chart at you and you have to day trade it, it'll tell you how you did versus a buy & hold strategy and... well it's just really really good!
BLOGS N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://jkonfx.com/ Technical & fundamental news on currencies. I would advise newer traders not to trade solely on external opinions because that won't cement your own methodology or reasons for trading. Excellent website for if you want an overview of the markets and daily reports. Also includes a trading journal and a lot of media attention.
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/ A good blog for new traders/ investors. Lot of ‘top 10 lists’ to flick through.
http://www.tradingheroes.com/ This is absolutely amazing! I can't put a value on this! It's one of the best gems of the internet. Podcasts interviewing successful traders, some are notable such as 50pips, Walter Peters & Chris Kapre.
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/ Found this when doing the podcast link below, it's actually really good high quality stuff. Blog based with plenty of educational material.
http://www.chatwithtraders.com A weekly podcast that interviews successful traders. Thank you gumballfrank for this.
http://ftp.traderkingdom.com/ Not had much of a chance to check this out, but first impression are nice!
http://www.forexlive.com Heavily oriented towards fundamentals. Good news portal submitted by WinterTires thanks!
http://www.tradeciety.com/ Heavily visually oriented perfect for beginners! Lots of infographics and info. Submitted by gumballfrank
http://orderflowforex.com/ A blog that focuses on Personal Development as a trader. Absolutely essential. It'll help to focus you on your journey to trading omnipotence!
ONLINE SCHOOLS & LEARNING PORTALS N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://theinnercircletrader.com/Tutorials.htm Best tutorials in the world by a secret trillionaire.
http://www.tradimo.com A superb website dedicated to training people to become better investors traders for free.
http://www.babypips.com One of the best free online schools which tracks your progress and teaches you heaps on information. The forum is the gem, where many people keep trade journals and put up their strategies. Don't copy them but borrowing concepts and ideas is good.
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school-complete-forex-education-pro-banke Unbelievably thorough! Education on forex trading, literally everything is covered.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school Very wide ranging resource that focuses mainly on technical analysis.
http://www.investopedia.com This should be a given, but seriously – this place is the Wikipedia of trading/ investing.
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/swing-trading-basics.html Actually a really good learning resource that mentions psychology and momentum among other things.
http://thepatternsite.com/Psychology.html Really good information on trading psychology – something that often goes unnoticed with beginners.
http://www.finvids.com/ Cool little website with videos on candle patterns and chart patterns.
http://www.fxacademy.com/ Appears to be a free trading academy. Not tried it personally, but it looks really good. With plenty of videos for visual learners.
http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/intro PEOPLE IN NEED OF A STRATEGY CHECK THIS OUT List of strategies, literally everyone you'll ever need.
ARTICLES OF INTEREST N/A -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://orderflowforex.com/2014/11/trading-books-proper-orde There's a lot of information out there, it's overwhelming. You might think "Where the hell do I start?!" well here's your answer! The books you have to read... and in what order! Super important for beginners.
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009/05/14/trading-psychology-stages-investor-emotions/ An article on the ’14 stages of investor emotions’ knowing who you are and what is happening to you can lead you to make more calculated decisions.
http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/10/15/money-master-the-game/ Tim Ferris, author of The 4 Hour Work Week interviews Tony Robbins to find out the success behind the worlds best investors. Talking about morning routines, peak performance & mastering money!
http://www.tradeciety.com/category/trading-blog/ Best trading & investing blogs and articles as picked by tradeciety.com
http://www.forextradetracker.com/blog/understanding-forex-jargon-a-glossary-for-beginners Forex jargon glossary for beginners. Submitted by gumballfrank
http://orderflowforex.com/order-flow-trading/what-is-order-flow-trading/ What is order flow trading? Essential for beginners
FORUMS N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/ Excellent learning resource, main focus is to help avoid people getting scammed.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ Massive forum for beginners to talk to more experienced traders – very active community.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php Much like trade2win but more focused towards forex.
http://forums.babypips.com/ Another forum dedicated to forex traders. You'll find people keeping good strategies here, list them via most views first to find the real gems.
MISCELLANEOUS RESOURCES N/A --------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=520423 Some beast called Lester showing you how it is! Read this!
http://theinnercircletrader.com/Tutorials.htm If you watch all of these you're already a millionaire!
http://www.forex-warez.com/Free%20Download/ Every book you could ever want on trading, investing, market psychology, strategies etc.
http://www.forextradetracker.com/ SUPER IMPORTANT This website is paramount to your success, still in development but will provide users with an easy way to document trades. Success is determined by your willingness to follow through with the boring bits so keep this one in your bookmarks.
http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candlestick-pattern-flashcard-game.html Super useful Flashcard game that helps you to remember important candlestick patterns.
http://www.hotcandlestick.com/forex_charts.htm Important candlestick patterns that have appeared on the major currency pairs. Good for a quick overview.
http://www.freeonlinetradingeducation.com/chart-school.html Website offering visual illustration & practical applications of popular candlestick patterns.
http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm Glossary of candlestick patterns.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/topic/Technical_Analysis Another resource for learning technical analysis. Not particularly thorough but useful for basic concepts.
http://www.forexschoolonline.com/ Market overviews and trading opportunity videos provided, along with educational videos and the like.
http://www.tradersdna.com/education/ Another trading education site focusing more on forex.
submitted by Dannyboi93 to forexit [link] [comments]

Hi everyone, I need your help

Hello. First of all i want to let you know that english is my second language so if I make mistakes I am sorry.
So to get to my main point. I have started trading forex a few years ago. Firstly I was just looking around, trying on demo accounts. Then I decided to invest 250 euro which is not much but as a student that was all I could afford. I managed to make a profit of 135 euro in a week which was just pure luck to be honest I had like knew resistances and supports but that was all i knew. Then I obvi lost everything. Since then I`ve been studying forex, watching youtube but it all seems so hectic. I think i have a good idea of trading price action as it was the first strategy I have been learning. Also I am from Czech Republic and we dont have like any youtuber making forex videos just one from AdmiralMarkets who is trading price action so as a begginer I decided its better to watch videos in Czech first but I dont have any problem witch videos in english nowadays.
So I still didnt get to my main point so here it is. Could you guys suggest me some strategies and youtubers/courses for me? I guess I would trade on daily graph as I have classes and test on my college during the day. Also i can invest like little bit over 250 euro. I like to trade euX and usd/X pairs because thats what I study and my hobby is economics and stuff so I have general knowledge about whats going on in the world which seems to like a big part of forex trading.
I am not really sure what you need to know to suggest me what I asked so ask me anything if you need to. Thank you in an advance.
submitted by Perwool to Forex [link] [comments]

I need advice regarding my trading strategy!

Hello everyone, I'm still learning and trying to improve my trading but I need advice from more experienced people in this industry. Currently I'm only demo trading until I prove profitability over certain time period. I'm only trading 50% of my capital just so that I can cover my loses if they happen. I do not really care about R:R ratios but I do use stop losses. How much pips do you usually risk per trade if you are swing trading? More or less, I will be swing trading because I can not devote 8 hours per day in front of the screen. I backtested my strategy during the period of 2016 with EURUSD pair and the results are following: 10 taken trades and 8 winners, around 1500 pips in profit. I'm using pure price action without any indicators. So, can you guys please give me rough observation if I'm doing good/decent/poor because I do not have any friends in FOREX industry who can give me constructive criticism. Thanks!
submitted by jakolinko to Forex [link] [comments]

An Immature Forex Trader

After running around like headless chicken in forex market for over 1.5 years, jumping from one to another half baked strategy, I have realised that:
  1. I am a impulsive trader. I couldn't just control my impulse every time when I actually need to sit back and analyse.
  2. After losing money, revenge trading emotions take over the mind. Further loss on the card.
  3. I tend to take larger positions irrespective of my small account. Greed rules.
  4. I am hooked to my cell screen watching live charts throughout the day. Recently ventured into smaller time frame like M15.
  5. People sitting on the other side (Market Makers ) are very very smart people. They play with your psychology. Many times, I chase the price and end up losing.
Now, when I am at the edge after losing much money. I came to understand following:
  1. I should weigh in Macroeconomics before taking position. Only Price Action wont help.
  2. I shouldn't be limited to only smaller time-frames. Bigger time-frames give you directions.
  3. I should have a fixed trading plan and stick to it no matter what.
  4. I better stay away from news trading. Highly risky.
  5. I should take smaller positions. Price moves immediately against you the moment you take bigger positions. I have experienced it many times.
Keeping above things in mind, still I find it really hard to follow a controlled mechanism for trading. Impulsiveness and greed take over. It seems like Trading is a kind of struggle to eliminate your negative emotions. To find your real pure self.
------------------------
Now, I want to weigh in macro economics factors in trading. Is there any site which provide various such economic analysis of all kind of pairs along with price action & COT analysis. I would be ready to pay subscription if genuine. It is time consuming for me to manually keeping track of each such element.
Rest of the things that I mentioned are related to control of own mind which I would have to practice religiously.
Guidance required.
submitted by fundoomaster to Forex [link] [comments]

10 tips for Investing (A guide from a newb)

Hello all.
I will make this quite frank. I've been noticing dangerous advise being spread around the forums that is based too much on hype and I do not want the layman investor to suffer. We are all here to profit intelligently, not to gamble. So I would just like to offer a few tips to new investors of stellar. I am not a stock professional but have ties to the finance industry and have dabbled in forex and investments. I got burned so that you don't have to, so heed my advise. Especially since I have institutional friends who have helped me along the way (think Goldman, BNP, JP, etc).
Tips:
1.) Do not over-diversify your portfolio but pay attention to exposure. Investing is all about the risk-reward ratio. Greater risk does not always mean greater reward. For example, I have 80% of my portfolio in traditional investment vehicles like real estate investment trusts, stocks, bonds, and exchange traded funds. 20% is for cryptos however this is what I consider my 'play' money since cryptos are a very young market, that is based more on potential rather than value (you can't gauge the financial health of crypto using traditional tools like cashflow analysis or price/earnings ratios). I think cryptos are incredibly valuable but going all in especially with the inflated nature of bitcoin, would be dangerous for any of you, so I would suggest you diversify between traditional and cryptos.
2.) Reduce crypto risk by analyzing competitors to your alt coin. As I said before, do not overcompensate this diversification but bet for and against a crypto. In forex institutions use this tool to limit exposure to currency volatility. Imagine you go long GBP/USD, then you should naturally short GBP/CAD to a degree in order to limit exposure, but maximize growth potential. In the crypto world crypto pairs aren't really traded so they are illiquid markets, but I would suggest hedging a bit of stellar with XRP and even bitcoin. With this strategy I have been able to mitigate my losses from the recent stellar drop. Picture cryptos as a ranked list with the most valuable on top and the worst in the bottom. If BTC is on the top of your ranked list and XLM is in 3rd place but XRP is in 2nd place, then short XRP/BTC and go long XRP/XLM. I know these pairings don't all exist but it's to give you an idea how to think about the market.
3.) Support and resistance is important for technical analysis. The way you determine this is simply by seeing the area where past price action has not been able to surpass (resistance) or where past price action has not been able to drop below (support). Usually when a support or resistance level is tested multiple times it becomes stronger. However, there are ways to guess how breakouts are formed. See the chart below.
https://imgur.com/u9r2e0c
In the chart you have what is called accumulation. The price keeps testing the 400 resistance mark, making it a stronger barrier, however every dip in price is higher than the proceeding dip. This signals that there is a solid accumulation that will result in a break out. Just because a price level is tested multiple times does not mean there is a break out. You need to usually have such an accumulation phase (think of the imagery of stairs). In the same chart you can also see the price has not been able to really go below 400 because it is the new support level and the more it tests it, the stronger the barrier will become.
4.) Statistics has a fine way of helping us in our journey. My best friend is a mathematician and was able to offer advise on statistical trend setting. He stated that the longer the trend is set, the higher probability that it will keep going in that direction. Sounds obvious right? Well there is some truth to this but this goes right to my next point.
5.) For every second and moment you have a position open you increase your risk exponentially. This is why high frequency trading exists. So I am trying to offer a nuanced point that while trend continuation is statistically likely, so is the exponential increase of risk. These two last tips are particularly for leveraged traders.
6.) Be creative. Try to implement value investing criteria on cryptos in order to assess the true value of your chosen currency, whatever that may be. It can truly be difficult for ones like Bitcoin but for centralized cryptos like XRP and non profits like XLM it isn't too difficult. I saw an investor here requesting stellars financial statements and had a slight grin. That is the type of investor you should be. Vigilant, because more than making money, we should all be focusing on protecting money. Do not be greedy, because you will be susceptible to hot tips and emotion. Make 'preserving' your capital a priority. As long as you are gaining above inflation, all of you are winning. And now...
7.) Luck number 7! Anyway, buying on the dips is a great strategy, especially when it is testing a support or resistance zone that has been tested a bit before. Buying into a dip in a zone that has only been tested once is a bit risky. You want to see a form of sustainable accumulation.
8.) Do not simply invest in a crypto purely based on the dip. I will admit I have done this sometimes to an extent and it is okay. But the point of this post is to encourage you to do your homework and measure valuations, based on market volume, liquidity, technological announcements, and financial statements. The reason I sometimes partially ignore this is because I usually enter investments to hold at least 8 months -1 year minimum.
9.) Centralization and decentralization do not matter in crypto. I know XRP gets hate and I'd prefer stellar lumens, but that is not purely a reason to not invest in a currency. With centralization you get more compliance and regulatory oversight which marks higher security in investment. Cryptos are amazing, but with institutional involvement, this is an important case to make.
10.) Governments do not have conventional ways to regulate cryptos, but they do have tools to manipulate the market, so be attentive. All it takes is one major country to become heavily involved, in order to ensure a large price drop.
11.) DO NOT SHORT! I REPEAT DO NOT SHORT! Leave this to the professionals. Whereas with buying a currency you have a limited downward risk (you only have the risk to lose all your money), with shorting you effectively have no price floor to limit risk and exposure since the price theoretically has unlimited growth potential. If you decide to short stellar at 0.10 cents then you can lose all your investment and even be in debt (depends on leveraging), because the price can go anywhere from 0 cents to infinity. When you buy, you limit your risk to 0 cents which is where you lose all your money, but maximize growth potential which is technically infinite. This plays into the concept that the longer you have a position open, the greater the exponential risk.
I hope you all enjoyed my guide. I am by no means an expert and am new to cryptos, however I've had associates involved for longer and friends that are also in finance (I worked in the back office of a private equity firm even though that wasn't glorious).
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financial advisory full definition

The financial advisory full definition

A Monetary Advisor's Many Roles

A monetary advisor is your planning associate. To illustrate you need to retire in 20 years or ship your youngster to a non-public college in 10 years. To perform your objectives, it's possible you'll want a skilled professional to assist make these plans an actuality, and that’s the place a monetary advisor is available in.
Collectively, you and your advisor will cowl many subjects, together with the amount of cash you need to save, the sorts of accounts you want, the sorts of insurance coverage you need to have (together with long-term care, time period life, and incapacity) and property and tax planning.
The monetary advisor can be an educator. A part of the advisor's job is that will help you perceive what's concerned in assembly your future objectives. The schooling course of could embrace detailed assist with monetary subjects. At first of your relationship, these subjects could possibly be budgeting and saving. As you advance in your data, the advisor will help you in understanding advanced funding, insurance coverage, and tax issues.
The 1st step within the monetary advisory course is knowing your financial health. You'll be able to correctly plan for the long run without understanding the place you stand immediately. Sometimes, you can be requested to finish an in-depth written questionnaire. Your solutions assist the advisor to perceive your state of affairs and make sure you do not overlook any essential data.
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The Monetary Questionnaire

The advisor works with you to get an entire image of your property, liabilities, revenue, and bills. On the questionnaire, additionally, you will point out future pensions and revenue sources, venture retirement wants and describes any long-term monetary obligations. In brief, you’ll checklist all present and anticipated investments, pensions, items and sources of revenue.
The investing element of the questionnaire touches upon extra subjective subjects, reminiscent of your risk tolerance and risk capacity. An understanding of threat assists the advisor when it’s time to find out your funding asset allocation. You may let the advisor know your funding preferences as nicely.
The preliminary evaluation additionally contains an examination of different monetary administration subjects reminiscent of insurance coverage points and your tax state of affairs. The advisor wants to pay attention to your present estate plan (or lack thereof) in addition to different professionals in your planning group, reminiscent of accountants and legal professionals. When you and the advisor perceive your current monetary place and future projections, you’re able to work collectively on a plan to fulfil your life and monetary objectives.

Creating The Monetary Plan

The monetary advisor synthesizes all of this preliminary data right into a comprehensive financial plan that may function a roadmap to your monetary future. It begins with an abstract of the important thing findings out of your preliminary questionnaire and summarizes your present monetary state of affairs, together with internet price, property, liabilities, and liquid or working capital. The monetary plan additionally recaps the objectives you and the advisor mentioned.
The evaluation part of this prolonged doc drills down into a number of subjects, together with your threat tolerance, estate-planning particulars, household state of affairs, long-term care risk, and different pertinent current and future monetary points.
Primarily based upon your anticipated internet price and future revenue at retirement, the plan will create simulations of doubtless best- and worst-case retirement eventualities, together with the scary risk of outliving your cash, so steps may be taken to forestall that end result. It's going to have a look at cheap withdrawal charges in retirement out of your portfolio property. Moreover, if you're married or in a long-term partnership, the plan will contemplate survivorship points and monetary eventualities for the surviving associate.
After you assessment the plan with the advisor and modify it as mandatory, you’re prepared for motion.

Advisors Plan Motion Steps

A monetary advisor is not only somebody who helps with investments. Their job is that will help you with each facet of your monetary life. In truth, you may work with a monetary advisor without having them handle your portfolio or advocate investments in any respect.
For many individuals, nevertheless, funding recommendation is a significant purpose to work with a monetary advisor. If you happen to select this route, right here’s what to anticipate.
The advisor will arrange an asset allocation that matches each your threat tolerance and threat capability. The asset allocation is solely a rubric to find out what proportion of your complete monetary portfolio might be distributed throughout varied asset lessons. An extra risk-averse particular person can have a better focus of presidency bonds, certificates of deposit and cash market holdings, whereas a person who's extra snug with the threat will tackle extra shares and company bonds and maybe funding actual property. Your asset allocation might be adjusted to your age and for a way lengthy you could have earlier than retirement. Every monetary advisory agency will act in accordance with the regulation and with its firm funding coverage when shopping for and promoting the monetary property.

Monetary Advisors and Investments

It’s essential for you, as the buyer, to grasp what your planner recommends and why. You shouldn't blindly comply with an advisor’s suggestions; it’s your cash, and you need to perceive the way it’s being deployed. Preserve an in-depth eye on the charges you're paying, each to your advisor and for any funds purchased for you.
Ask your advisor why they advocate particular investments and whether or not they're receiving a fee for promoting you these investments. Be alert for potential conflicts of interest.
A commonality amongst corporations is that monetary merchandise is chosen to suit the shopper’s threat profile. Take, for instance, a 50-year-old man who’s already amassed sufficient internet price for retirement and is predominantly fascinated with capital preservation. He could have a really conservative asset allocation of 45% in inventory property (which can embrace particular person shares, mutual funds and/or ETFs) and 55% in fixed-income assets reminiscent of bonds. Alternatively, a 40-year-old girl with a smaller internet price and a willingness to tackle extra threat to construct up her monetary portfolio could go for an asset allocation of 70% inventory property, 25% fixed-income property and 5% alternative investments.
Whereas bearing in mind the agency’s funding philosophy, your private portfolio will suit yours wants primarily based on how quickly you want the cash, your investment horizon, and your current and future objectives.

Common Monetary Monitoring

As soon as your funding plan is in place, you’ll obtain common statements out of your advisor updating you in your portfolio. The advisor can even arrange common conferences to assessment your objectives and progress and to reply to any questions you could have. Assembly remotely by way of cellphone or video chat will help make these contacts occur extra typically.
Along with common, ongoing conferences, it’s essential to seek the advice of together with your monetary advisor once you anticipate a significant change in your life that might impact your financial picture, reminiscent of getting married or divorced, including a toddler to your loved ones, shopping for or promoting a house, altering jobs or getting promoted.

Indicators You Might Want an Advisor

Anybody can work with a monetary advisor at any age and any stage of life. You don’t should have an excessive internet price; you simply have to seek out an advisor suited to your situation.
The choice to enlist skilled assist together with your cash is an extremely private one, however, any time you’re feeling overwhelmed, confused, wired or scared by your monetary state of affairs could also be a very good time to search for a monetary advisor.
It’s additionally advantageous to strategy one once you’re coming from a place of energy however need somebody to make sure that you’re heading in the right direction and recommend potential enhancements to your plan which may make it easier to obtain your objectives extra successfully.
Lastly, should you don’t have the time or curiosity to handle your funds, that’s one other good purpose to rent a monetary advisor.
These are some basic causes you would possibly want an advisor’s skilled assist. Listed below are some extra particular ones.

None of Your Financial savings Is Invested or You Don’t Know How you can Make investments

As a result of we dwell in a world of inflation, any cash you retain in money or in a low-interest account declines in worth annually. Investing is the one technique to make your cash develop, and until you could have exceptionally excessive revenue, investing is the one approach most individuals will ever come up with the money to retire.

You Have Investments, however, You’re Constantly Dropping Cash

Even the perfect buyers lose cash when the market is down or once they decide that doesn’t prove as they’d hoped, however general, investing ought to improve your internet price significantly. If it’s not doing that, hiring a monetary advisor will help you discover out what you’re doing incorrect and proper your course earlier than it’s too late.

You Don’t Have a Present Property Plan

A monetary advisor may make it easier to put collectively a property plan to ensure your property are dealt with in response to your needs after you die. And should you aren’t correctly insured (or aren’t positive what insurance coverage you want), a monetary advisor will help with that, too. Certainly, a fee-only monetary advisor could possibly supply a much less biased opinion than an insurance coverage agent can.

Serving to You Attain Your Objectives

Monetary advisors can help you with investing and reaching your long-term objectives in so some ways. Listed below are 5:
  1. Experience. Monetary advisors know extra about investing and managing cash than most individuals. They'll information you to higher selections than you would possibly make by yourself.
  2. Accountability. Monetary advisors assist hold you on the monitor by speaking you out of constructing emotional choices about your cash, like shopping for an inventory that’s been skyrocketing or promoting all of your inventory funds when the market plummets.
  3. Recommendation. It’s within the title: Monetary advisors could make strategies about the perfect methods to implement to enhance your funds, from what to investments to make to what insurance coverage to purchase.
  4. Evolution. As your life circumstances change, a monetary advisor will help you modify your monetary plan in order that it at all times suits your present state of affairs.
  5. Motion. Many individuals don’t take the steps they need to handle their funds as a result of they’re too busy or too unsure about what to do. Working with a monetary advisor means another person can deal with what you don’t have time for and ensure your cash is being deployed in one of the simplest ways.

The Prices of a Monetary Advisor

A rule proposed by the Division of Labor (DOL) would have required all monetary professionals who work with retirement plans or give retirement plan recommendation to supply recommendation that's within the shopper’s greatest curiosity (the fiduciary standard), versus merely appropriate for the shopper (the suitability standard). The rule was handed, its implementation was delayed after which a courtroom killed it.
However within the roughly three-year interval between President Obama's proposal of the rule and its eventual demise, the media shed extra mild than it had beforehand on the other ways monetary advisors work, how they cost for his or her companies and the way the suitability commonplace may be much less useful to shoppers than the fiduciary commonplace. Some monetary advisors determined to voluntarily transfer to a fiduciary commonplace or extra closely promote that they already operated underneath that commonplace. Others, reminiscent of licensed monetary planners™, already adhered to this commonplace. However, even underneath the DOL rule, the fiduciary standard wouldn't have utilized to the non-retirement recommendation – an ordinary certain to trigger confusion.
Below the suitability commonplace, monetary advisors work on a fee for the merchandise they promote to shoppers. This implies the shopper could by no means obtain an invoice from the monetary advisor. Then again, they might find yourself with monetary merchandise that charger greater charges than others available on the market – however, pay the advisor an excessive fee for placing shoppers into them.
Below the fiduciary commonplace, advisors cost shoppers by the hour or as a proportion of the property underneath administration. A typical proportion charge is 1%, whereas a typical hourly fee for monetary recommendation ranges from $120 to $300. Charges range by location and the advisor’s expertise. Some advisors could supply decrease charges to assist shoppers who're simply getting began with monetary planning and mightn't afford a lot. A preliminary session is commonly free and supplies an opportunity for each the shopper and the advisor to see in the event that they’re a very good match for one another.
Financial advisors can also earn a mixture of charges and commissions. A fee-based monetary advisor is not the same as a fee-only financial advisor. A fee-based advisor could earn a charge for growing a monetary plan for you, however nonetheless earn a fee for promoting you a sure insurance coverage product or funding. A fee-only monetary advisor earns no commissions.
The Securities and Alternate Fee proposed its personal fiduciary rule referred to as Regulation Best Interest in April 2018. In some methods, it will be much less strict than the DOL’s fiduciary rule would have been, doubtlessly addressing the considerations of a number of the DOL rule’s critics. In one other approach, it will be broader: It might not be restricted to retirement investments.

Contemplating a Robo-Advisor

A digital monetary advisor, or robot-advisor, is an organization that makes use of pc algorithms to handle your cash primarily based in your solutions to questions on your objectives and threat tolerance. Robo-advisors don’t require you to have a lot of cash to get began they usually price lower than human monetary advisors. Examples embrace Betterment and Wealthfront. These companies can save you time and take the emotion out of investing.
However, a robust-advisor can’t communicate with you about one of the simplest ways to get out of debt or fund your youngster’s schooling. It can also speak you out of promoting your investments out of concern when you have to be holding on to them for the long term. Nor can it make it easier to construct and handle a portfolio of particular person shares. Robo-advisors usually make investments shoppers’ cash in a portfolio of ETFs and mutual funds that present inventory and bond publicity and monitor a market index. And if in case you have a posh property or tax problem, you want the extremely personalised recommendation that solely a human can supply (for now, anyway).
Some corporations, nevertheless, mix digitally managed portfolio funding with the choice for human interplay – at an extra price. One such service is Personal Capital. Some individuals name these companies digital advisors as a result of interactions occur by cellphone or video chat as an alternative of an individual; others use the phrases “robot-advisor” and “digital advisor” synonymously.

What's a Monetary Advisor

A monetary advisor supplies monetary recommendation or steerage to clients for compensation. Monetary advisors, or advisers, can present many various companies, reminiscent of funding administration, revenue tax preparation and estate planning. They have to carry the Series 65 license to conduct enterprise with the general public; all kinds of licenses can be found for the companies offered by a monetary advisor.

BREAKING DOWN Monetary Advisor

"Monetary advisor" is a generic time period with no exact business definition, and plenty of various kinds of monetary professionals fall into this basic class. Stockbrokers, insurance coverage brokers, tax preparers, investment managers and monetary planners are all members of this group. Property planners and bankers can also fall underneath this umbrella.

Completely different Examples of Monetary Advisors

What could cross as a monetary advisor in some situations could also be a product salesperson, reminiscent of a stockbroker or a life insurance coverage agent. A real monetary advisor needs to be a well-educated, credentialed, skilled, monetary skilled who works on behalf of his shoppers versus serving the pursuits of a monetary establishment. Typically, a monetary advisor is an unbiased practitioner who operates in a fiduciary capability through which a shopper’s pursuits come earlier than his personal. Solely Registered Investment Advisors (RIA), who're ruled by the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, are held to a real fiduciary commonplace. There are some brokers and brokers who attempt to follow on this capability, nevertheless, their compensation construction is such that they're certain by the contracts of the businesses the place they work.

The Fiduciary Distinction

For the reason, that enactment of the Funding Adviser Act of 1940, two sorts of relationships has existed between monetary intermediaries and their shoppers. These are the “arms size” relationship that characterizes the transactions between registered representatives and shoppers within the broker-dealer area, and the fiduciary relationship that requires advisors registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as Registered Funding Advisors to train duties of loyalty, care and full disclosure of their interactions with shoppers. Whereas the previous is predicated on the precept of “caveat emptor” guided by self-governed guidelines of “suitability” and “reasonableness” in recommending a funding product or technique, the latter is grounded in federal legal guidelines that impose the best moral requirements. At its core, the fiduciary relationship depends on the need {that a} monetary advisor should act on behalf of a shopper in an approach the shopper would act for himself if he had the requisite data and abilities to take action.

What's a Monetary Adviser

A monetary adviser (or advisor) is knowledgeable who supplies monetary steerage to shoppers primarily based on their wants and objectives. Sometimes, they supply shoppers with monetary merchandise, companies, planning or recommendation associated with investing, retirement, insurance coverage, mortgages, school financial savings, property planning, taxes and extra. Another name for monetary adviser embraces "funding advisor" and "registered representative." Monetary advisers can be insurance coverage brokers, accountants or attorneys.

Breaking Down Monetary Adviser

A big problem to think about when evaluating a monetary adviser or deciding on what sort of adviser to me is how they're paid. Some monetary advisors are paid a flat charge for his or her recommendation and are thought-about fiduciaries, whereas others earn commissions from the merchandise they promote to their shoppers. Some advisors, reminiscent of within the case of a hybrid adviser or dually registered advisor, cost charges in addition to earning commissions relying on the product they're promoting or the service they're offering. Charge-only preparations are broadly thought-about to be higher for the shopper.
Monetary advisers are required to fulfil a fiduciary commonplace. In keeping with the Securities and Alternate Fee, advisers should:

How Monetary Advisors Are Compensated

The commonest approach advisers are paid is predicated on a proportion of complete property underneath advisory, normally about 1-2% (or decrease the bigger that sum will get). Some advisors are paid by way of commissions from insurance coverage or monetary merchandise they promote, although this could result in a battle of curiosity due to the motivation to advocate the perfect product commission-wise and never essentially the only option for the shopper. Such an individual is appearing as a salesman and should merely meet a suitability commonplace slightly than an extra-stringent fiduciary commonplace. Hybrid advisors, a fast-growing phase of the advisory enterprise due to its flexibility, are paid by way of fee for promoting some merchandise and likewise charges for companies and recommendation as a fiduciary. This association is also known as "fee-based" (versus "fee-only," which refers to a 100% fiduciary). Some advisers are paid by way of an hourly charge, or a flat charge for particular companies or tasks, or by way of every day (typically quarterly) retainer charge.

How you can Discover a Monetary Adviser

Except for asking family and friends for referrals, skilled organizations just like the Monetary Planning Affiliation (FPA) and the Nationwide Affiliation of Private Monetary Advisors (NAPFA) will help a person discover an adviser. When selecting a monetary adviser, it is essential to ask if they've any FINRA licenses or official credentials. Licensed Monetary Planner® (CFP®), chartered monetary analyst (CFA), chartered monetary guide (ChFC), and registered funding advisor (RIA) are good indicators of an adviser's {qualifications}.

How you can Change into a Monetary Adviser

Many international locations require people to finish coaching or receive a license to turn into a monetary advisor. In America, monetary advisors should carry a Sequence 65 or 66 licenses as stipulated by the Monetary Trade Regulatory Authority (FINRA). In keeping with FINRA, funding advisors, brokers, accountants, insurance coverage brokers and monetary planners can use the time period "monetary adviser." The North American Securities Directors Affiliation supplies a very good brief overview of financial adviser requirements.

Monetary Adviser vs. Advisor

Whereas 'adviser' spelt with an 'e' is the official spelling as per the Funding Advisers Act of 1940, 'advisor' with an 'o' is appropriate to confer with somebody who supplies recommendation. Nonetheless, when utilized in reference to the authorized designation 'adviser' needs to be used.

What Is a Fiduciary?

A fiduciary is an individual or group that acts on behalf of one other individual or individuals to handle the property. Primarily, a fiduciary owes to that different entity the duties of good faith and belief. The best-authorized obligation of 1 social gathering to a different, being a fiduciary requires being certain ethically to behave within the different's greatest pursuits.
A fiduciary may be answerable for basic well-being, however, typically the duty includes funds—managing the property of one other individual, or of a bunch of individuals, for instance. Cash managers, monetary advisors, bankers, accountants, executors, board members, and company officers all have fiduciary accountability.

Fiduciary Defined

A fiduciary's obligations or duties are each moral and authorized. When a celebration knowingly accepts the fiduciary duty on behalf of one other social gathering, they're required to behave in the perfect curiosity of the principal, the social gathering whose property they're managing. That is what is called a "prudent individual commonplace of care," an ordinary that initially stems from an 1830 courtroom ruling.
This formulation of the prudent-person rule required that an individual appearing as fiduciary was required to behave at the start with the wants of beneficiaries in thoughts.
The fiduciary is anticipated to handle the property for the advantage of the opposite individual, slightly than for their very own revenue, and can't profit personally from their administration of property.
Usually, no revenue is to be constituted of the connection until express consent is granted on the time the connection begins. For example, in the UK, fiduciaries can not revenue from their place, in response to an English Excessive Court docket ruling, Keech vs. Sandford (1726). If the principal supplies consent, then the fiduciary can hold no matter profit they've acquired; these advantages may be both financial or outlined extra broadly as an "alternative."
Fiduciary duties seem in all kinds of widespread enterprise relationships, together with:

Fiduciary Trustee/Beneficiary

Property preparations and applied trusts contain a trustee and a beneficiary. A person named as a belief or property trustee is the fiduciary, and the beneficiary is the principal. Below a trustee/beneficiary obligation, the fiduciary has authorized possession of the property or property and holds the ability essential to deal with property held within the title of the belief.
Nonetheless, the trustee should make choices which might be in the perfect curiosity of the beneficiary because the latter holds equitable title to the property. The trustee/beneficiary relationship is a crucial facet of complete property planning, and particular care needs to be taken to find out who's designated as trustee.
Politicians typically arrange blind trusts with the intention to keep away from conflict-of-interest scandals. A blind belief is a relationship through which a trustee is accountable for the funding of a beneficiary's corpus (property) without the beneficiary understanding how the corpus is being invested. Even whereas the beneficiary has no data, the trustee has a fiduciary obligation to speculate the corpus in response to the prudent individual commonplace of conduct.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Board MembeShareholder

An identical fiduciary obligation may be held by company administrators, as they are often thought-about trustees for stockholders if on the board of a company, or trustees of depositors if service as director of a financial institution. Particular duties embrace:

The Obligation of Care

This is applicable to the best way the board makes choices that have an effect on the way forward for the enterprise. The board has the obligation to completely examine all potential choices and the way they could impression the enterprise; If the board is voting to elect a brand new CEO, for instance, the choice shouldn't be made primarily based solely on the board's data or opinion of 1 potential candidate; it's the board's accountability to analyze all viable candidates to make sure the perfect individual for the job is chosen.

The Obligation to Act in Good Religion

Even after it moderately investigates all of the choices earlier than it, the board has the accountability to decide on the choice it believes greatest serves the pursuits of the enterprise and its shareholders.

The Obligation of Loyalty

This implies the board is required to place no different causes, pursuits or affiliations above its allegiance to the corporate and the corporate's buyers. Board members should chorus from private or skilled dealings which may put their very own self-interest or that of one other individual or enterprise above the curiosity of the corporate.
If a member of a board of administrators is discovered to be in breach of their fiduciary obligation, they are often held liable in a courtroom of regulation by the corporate itself or its shareholders.

Fiduciary as ExecutoLegatee

Fiduciary actions may apply to particular or one-time transactions. For instance, a fiduciary deed is used to switch property rights in a sale when a fiduciary should act as an executor of the sale on behalf of the property proprietor. A fiduciary deed is helpful when a property proprietor needs to promote however is unable to deal with their affairs as a consequence of sickness, incompetence, or different circumstances, and wishes somebody to behave of their stead.
A fiduciary is required by regulation to confide in the potential purchaser the true situation of the property being offered, they usually can not obtain any monetary advantages from the sale. A fiduciary deed can be helpful when the property proprietor is deceased and their property is a part of a property that wants oversight or administration.

Guardian/Ward Fiduciary

Below a guardian/ward relationship, authorized guardianship of a minor is transferred to an appointed grownup. Because the fiduciary, the guardian is tasked with making certain the minor youngster or ward has acceptable care, which may embrace deciding the place the minor attends faculty, that the minor has appropriate medical care, that they're disciplined in an inexpensive method, and that their everyday welfare stays intact.
A guardian is appointed by the state courtroom when the pure guardian of a minor youngster just isn't capable of taking care of the kid any longer. In most states, a guardian/ward relationship stays intact until the minor youngster reaches the age of majority.

Legal professional/Consumer Fiduciary

The legal professional/shopper fiduciary relationship is arguably one of the stringent. The U.S. Supreme Court docket states that the best degree of belief and confidence should exist between a legal professional and shopper—and that a legal professional, as fiduciary, should act in full equity, loyalty, and constancy in every illustration of, and coping with, shoppers.
Attorneys are held accountable for breaches of their fiduciary duties by the shopper and are accountable to the courtroom through which that shopper is represented when a breach happens.

Fiduciary Principal/Agent

An extra generic instance of fiduciary obligation lies within the principal/agent relationship. Any particular person individual, company, partnership, or authorities company can act as a principal or agent so long as the individual or enterprise has the authorized capability to take action. Below a principal/agent obligation, an agent is legally appointed to behave on behalf of the principal without the battle of curiosity.
A standard instance of a principal/agent relationship that means fiduciary obligation is a bunch of shareholders as principals electing administration or C-suite people to behave as brokers. Equally, buyers act as principals when choosing funding fund managers as brokers to handle the property.

Funding Fiduciary

Whereas it might appear as if a funding fiduciary could be a monetary skilled (cash supervisor, banker, and so forth), a funding fiduciary is anyone who has the obligation for managing any person else's cash. Which means should you volunteered to take a seat on the funding committee of the board of your native charity or different group, you could have fiduciary accountability. You will have been positioned able of belief, and there could also be penalties for the betrayal of that belief.
Additionally, hiring a monetary or funding professional doesn't relieve the committee members of all of their duties. They nonetheless have an obligation to prudently choose and monitor the actions of the professional.

Suitability vs. Fiduciary Customary

In case your funding advisor is a Registered Investment Advisor, they share fiduciary accountability with the funding committee. Then again, a dealer, who works for a broker-dealer, could not. Some brokerage corporations don't need or permit their brokers to be fiduciaries.
Funding advisors, who're normally fee-based, are certain to a fiduciary commonplace that was established as a part of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. They are often regulated by the SEC or state securities regulators. The act is fairly particular in defining what a fiduciary means, and it stipulates an obligation of loyalty and care, which implies that the advisor should put their shopper's pursuits above their very own.
For instance, the advisor can not purchase securities for his or her account prior to purchasing them for a shopper and is prohibited from making trades that will end in greater commissions for the advisor or their funding agency.
It additionally implies that the advisor should do their greatest to ensure funding recommendation is made utilizing correct and full data—principally, that the evaluation is thorough and as correct as potential. Avoiding conflicts of curiosity are essential when appearing as a fiduciary, and it implies that an advisor should disclose any potential conflicts to put the shopper's pursuits forward of the advisor's.
Moreover, the advisor wants to put trades underneath a "greatest execution" commonplace, that means that they have to try to commerce securities with the perfect mixture of low price and environment-friendly execution.

The Suitability Rule

Dealer-dealers, who are sometimes compensated by a fee, usually solely have to satisfy a suitability obligation. That is outlined as making suggestions which might be in keeping with the wants and preferences of the underlying buyer. Dealer-dealers are regulated by the Monetary Trade Regulatory Authority (FINRA) underneath requirements that require them to make appropriate suggestions to their shoppers.
As an alternative of getting to put their pursuits under that of the shopper, the suitability commonplace solely particulars that the broker-dealer has to moderately consider that any suggestions made are appropriate for the shopper when it comes to the shopper's monetary wants, aims, and distinctive circumstances. A key distinction when it comes to loyalty can be essential: A dealer's major obligation is to their employer, the broker-dealer for whom they work, to not their shoppers.
Different descriptions of suitability embrace ensuring transaction prices aren't extreme and that their suggestions aren't unsuitable for the shopper. Examples that will violate suitability embrace extreme buying and selling, churning the account merely to generate extra commissions, and often switching account property to generate transaction revenue for the broker-dealer.
Additionally, the necessity to disclose potential conflicts of curiosity just isn't as strict a requirement for brokers; funding solely must be appropriate, it would not essentially be in keeping with the person investor's aims and profile.

A broker-dealer follows the suitability commonplace: Funding selections have to be appropriate for the shopper, however, can nonetheless be extra helpful to the dealer than the easiest choice; the dealer's major accountability is to their agency, not their shopper.
The suitability commonplace can find yourself inflicting conflicts between a broker-dealer and shopper. The obvious battle has to do with compensation. Below a fiduciary commonplace, a funding advisor could be strictly prohibited from shopping for a mutual fund or different funding for a shopper as a result of it will garner the dealer the next charge or fee than a choice that will price the shopper much less—or yield extra for the shopper.
Below the suitability requirement, so long as the funding is appropriate for the shopper, it may be bought for the shopper. This could additionally incentivize brokers to promote their very own merchandise forward of competing for merchandise that will price much less.

The Brief-Lived Fiduciary Rule

Whereas the time period "suitability" was usual for transactional accounts or brokerage accounts, the Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule, proposed to toughen issues up for brokers. Anybody with retirement cash underneath administration, who made suggestions or solicitations for an IRA or different tax-advantaged retirement accounts, could be thought-about a fiduciary required to stick to that commonplace, slightly than to the suitability commonplace that was in any other case in impact.
The fiduciary rule had a protracted—and in the end unsuccessful—implementation. Initially proposed in 2010, it was scheduled to enter impact between April 10, 2017, and January 1, 2018. After President Trump took workplace it was postponed to June 9, 2017, together with a transition interval for sure exemptions extending via January 1, 2018.
Subsequently, implementation of all components of the rule was pushed again to July 1, 2019. Earlier than that would occur, the rule was vacated following a June 2018 decision by the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court.
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